DETROIT
TIGERSDET
35-49 | Road
6
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
42-42 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kenley Jansen
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Peyton Gray
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley Jansen | None-None | 4.98 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Peyton Gray | None-None | 2.87 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.98
ERA
Ldr 2.87
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
60%
RANGERS
40%
TIGERS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
76%
Under 0
24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.3%
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TEX By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Texas
5
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Texas
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rangers
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
DET @ TEX
6 - 3
Jul 4, 2026
DET @ TEX
3 - 0
Jul 2, 2026
DET @ TEX
4 - 10
May 3, 2026
TEX @ DET
1 - 7
May 2, 2026
TEX @ DET
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720
▲
OPS
.713
181
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+27.9% more
Detroit: 1.7
vs
Texas: 1.2
Walks (L5)
+22.5% more
Detroit: 2.0
vs
Texas: 1.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.0% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Texas: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+0.7%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Texas: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
6.0
6
TEX Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.3
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 7.3
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 14.5
14.0 / 17.0
Walks
1.6 / 2.0
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
DET
TEX
DET
ML
53%
86-76
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
54%
87-73
ATS
57%
92-70
64%
101-58
61%
98-63
57%
91-69
TTL
53%
78-70-14
46%
69-81-9
55%
81-66-14
46%
69-81-10
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