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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

47-37  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Jul 5 • 3:00 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

35-50  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Backhus
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Backhus

#19 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Lange
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Lange

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Backhus None-None 5.65 -- 0.2 1
Alex Lange None-None 4.82 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.65 ERA Ldr 4.82
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
56%
📊
ROYALS
44%
PHILLIES --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 46%
Under 0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

42.1%

Royals Cover

57.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

15.8%

KC By 1-2 runs

16.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.6
PHILADELPHIA
4.8
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.8
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 6, 2026 PHI @ KC 1 - 15
Jul 5, 2026 PHI @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PHI @ KC 6 - 1
Sep 14, 2025 KC @ PHI 10 - 3
Sep 13, 2025 KC @ PHI 6 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724 ▲
OPS
.718
3
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +57.7% more
Philadelphia: 2.0 vs Kansas City: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +51.0% more
Philadelphia: 13.0 vs Kansas City: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +44.9% more
Philadelphia: 17.1 vs Kansas City: 9.4
Hits (L5) +39.4% more
Philadelphia: 9.5 vs Kansas City: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.6 2
KC Score 4.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.8 / 9.5 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 2.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 13.0 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.4 / 17.1 11.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
PHI
KC
PHI
ML
55% 89-72
59% 97-67
56% 90-70
49% 80-84
ATS
57% 91-70
65% 107-57
58% 93-67
51% 83-81
TTL
58% 90-64-7
57% 88-67-9
54% 83-70-7
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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