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ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

43-38  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Jul 5 • 2:30 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

46-38  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Webb

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 6.69 -- 1.2 2
Jacob Webb None-None 3.29 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.69 ERA Ldr 3.29
-- WHIP --
1.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
70%
📊
CUBS
30%
CARDINALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 71%
Under 0 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

71.7%

Cubs Cover

28.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.4%

STL By 3-4 runs

18.9%

CHC By 1-2 runs

12.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

7.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6.3
ST. LOUIS
4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Cubs Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
A
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691 ▲
OPS
.374
167 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +88.7% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +31.7%
St. Louis: 69.1% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +23.3%
St. Louis: 37.8% vs Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 6.3 4
CHC Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.5 / 10.1 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.4 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 16.8 8.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.3 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58% 93-68
53% 85-74
51% 82-79
52% 84-77
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 89-70
47% 75-85-1
53% 85-76
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 68-81-10
46% 72-83-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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