Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Reds BAL @ CIN

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

39-46  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Jul 5 • 1:05 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

39-43  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Rico Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Rico Garcia

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Rico Garcia None-None 2.37 -- 0.1 --
Emilio Pagan None-None 6.46 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.37 Ldr ERA 6.46
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
62%
📊
REDS
38%
ORIOLES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

36.3%

Reds Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.2
BALTIMORE
4.8
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 BAL @ CIN 2 - 3
Jul 4, 2026 BAL @ CIN 8 - 5
Jul 3, 2026 BAL @ CIN 3 - 0
Apr 20, 2025 CIN @ BAL 24 - 2
Apr 19, 2025 CIN @ BAL 5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.711 ▲
OPS
.699
199
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +28.0% more
Baltimore: 1.0 vs Cincinnati: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +7.8% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season) +1.2%
Baltimore: 71.1% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.9%
Baltimore: 31.4% vs Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 6.2 2
CIN Score 4.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 7.3 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 7.6 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 12.3 9.0 / 8.0
Walks 5.3 / 4.8 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BAL
CIN
BAL
ML
55% 88-71
53% 83-73
49% 79-81
57% 90-69
ATS
54% 86-73
61% 95-60-1
50% 80-80
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 81-73-5
54% 81-70-5
54% 83-72-5
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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