Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Nationals PIT @ WSH

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

42-42  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sun, Jul 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

43-42  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Gregory Soto
STARTING PITCHER

Gregory Soto

#31 | Relief Pitcher
@
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gregory Soto None-None 4.26 -- 2.0 2
Orlando Ribalta None-None 3.42 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.26 ERA Ldr 3.42
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
42%
📊
NATIONALS
58%
PIRATES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 48%
Under 0 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Washington)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

41.1%

Nationals Cover

58.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.9%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.4
PITTSBURGH
5.3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Pirates (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 PIT @ WSH 11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PIT @ WSH 7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026 PIT @ WSH 5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026 WSH @ PIT 8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026 WSH @ PIT 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.734
OPS
▲ .744
186
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +127.0% more
Washington: 2.2 vs Pittsburgh: 1.0
Errors (L5) +44.0% more
Washington: 0.6 vs Pittsburgh: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +12.9% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Total Bases (L5) +8.6% more
Washington: 18.4 vs Pittsburgh: 16.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.4 11
WSH Score 5.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 11.6 10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.7 10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 18.4 / 16.9 17.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.8 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
57% 92-69
52% 82-77
54% 87-74
52% 85-78
ATS
58% 93-68
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
50% 81-82
TTL
50% 77-78-6
47% 72-81-6
42% 65-90-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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