NEW YORK
METSNYM
35-49 | Road
10
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
49-33 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Dodd
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 4.34 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| Dylan Dodd | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.34
ERA
Ldr 2.25
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
50%
BRAVES
50%
METS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
62%
Under 0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
13.9%
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Atlanta
5.1
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
B
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.705
OPS
▲
.757
204
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+27.6% more
New York: 3.7
vs
Atlanta: 2.7
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
New York: 23.9%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Home Runs (L5)
+72.4% more
Atlanta: 2.7
vs
New York: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.2
10
ATL Score
5.1
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
1.0 / 3.0
Hits
8.4 / 8.4
12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
2.7 / 1.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 7.9
5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
17.9 / 13.9
17.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.7
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYM
ATL
NYM
ML
46%
77-90
50%
79-80
54%
90-78
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-66
52%
87-81
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
55%
80-66-13
49%
76-80-11
51%
74-72-13
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat