Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Dodgers SD @ LAD

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

43-39  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Jul 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

54-30  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Will Klein
STARTING PITCHER

Will Klein

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Miller None-None 1.01 -- 1.0 --
Will Klein None-None 2.29 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.01 Ldr ERA 2.29
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
31%
📊
DODGERS
69%
PADRES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

29.1%

Dodgers Cover

70.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.0%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.1
SAN DIEGO
5.3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Dodgers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
C
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.925 ▲
OPS
.762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5) +69.1% more
Los Angeles: 10.4 vs San Diego: 6.2
Errors (L5) +63.0% more
San Diego: 0.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.0
Walks (L5) +39.4% more
San Diego: 5.4 vs Los Angeles: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.1 0
LAD Score 5.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.0 / 9.5 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 6.2 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.2 / 17.1 9.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.3 / 5.4 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
56% 92-73
51% 85-83
48% 79-87
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 91-77
43% 72-94
55% 92-75
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 82-80-6
44% 70-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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