MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
50-31 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
41-42 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Ortiz
#3 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Ortiz | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 2.62 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.62
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
68%
DIAMONDBACKS
32%
BREWERS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
62%
Under 0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
13.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
7.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
6.4
MILWAUKEE
Arizona
4.3
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.7
B
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
MIL @ ARI
3 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
MIL @ ARI
3 - 4
Jul 3, 2026
MIL @ ARI
7 - 4
Apr 30, 2026
ARI @ MIL
1 - 13
Apr 29, 2026
ARI @ MIL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.743
▲
OPS
.720
154
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.0% more
Milwaukee: 9.7
vs
Arizona: 6.4
Home Runs (L5)
+33.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.0
vs
Arizona: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+18.3% more
Milwaukee: 14.1
vs
Arizona: 11.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.3% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
6.4
3
ARI Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 9.0
4.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 9.7
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 14.1
8.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
MIL
ARI
MIL
ML
54%
87-74
62%
101-61
54%
86-74
52%
84-78
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
94-68
56%
89-71
48%
78-84
TTL
52%
80-73-8
40%
62-92-8
49%
73-77-9
50%
77-77-8
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