Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Athletics MIA @ ATH

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

44-40  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

40-44  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Zuber
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Zuber

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Suarez

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Zuber None-None 4.35 -- 1.0 1
Jose Suarez None-None 4.76 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.35 Ldr ERA 4.76
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
41%
📊
ATHLETICS
59%
MARLINS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 51%
Under 0 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Athletics)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

39.2%

Athletics Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.1%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.3%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.3
MIAMI
6.4
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletics Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
A
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o11.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.7
D
Sim u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 MIA @ ATH 9 - 8
Jul 4, 2026 MIA @ ATH 7 - 2
Jul 3, 2026 MIA @ ATH 12 - 5
May 4, 2025 ATH @ MIA 3 - 2
May 3, 2025 ATH @ MIA 6 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.727 ▲
OPS
.719
168
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +42.3% more
Athletics: 5.1 vs Miami: 3.6
Strikeouts (L5) +41.1% more
Athletics: 9.5 vs Miami: 6.7
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Athletics: 0.5 vs Miami: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +15.5% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 5.3 7
ATH Score 6.4 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.2 / 10.2 8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 2.3 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 6.7 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 19.6 10.0 / 24.0
Walks 5.1 / 3.6 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
MIA
ATH
MIA
ML
59% 95-67
48% 78-84
54% 87-74
55% 88-72
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 91-71
50% 81-80
54% 86-74
TTL
54% 84-73-5
56% 88-69-5
42% 66-90-5
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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