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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

47-37  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

35-50  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Tim Mayza
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Mayza

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Mayza None-None 2.88 -- 1.0 1
Lucas Erceg None-None 5.35 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.88 Ldr ERA 5.35
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
56%
📊
ROYALS
44%
PHILLIES --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

42.1%

Royals Cover

57.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

15.8%

KC By 1-2 runs

16.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.6
PHILADELPHIA
4.8
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.8
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.4
B
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 6, 2026 PHI @ KC 1 - 15
Jul 5, 2026 PHI @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PHI @ KC 6 - 1
Sep 14, 2025 KC @ PHI 10 - 3
Sep 13, 2025 KC @ PHI 6 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724 ▲
OPS
.718
3
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +53.7% more
Philadelphia: 12.0 vs Kansas City: 5.6
Hits (L5) +25.6% more
Philadelphia: 8.2 vs Kansas City: 6.1
Total Bases (L5) +21.0% more
Philadelphia: 14.1 vs Kansas City: 11.1
Walks (L5) +16.0% more
Philadelphia: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.6 6
KC Score 4.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.1 / 8.2 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.5 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 5.6 / 12.0 8.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 14.1 6.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.8 / 4.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
PHI
KC
PHI
ML
55% 89-72
59% 97-67
56% 90-70
49% 80-84
ATS
57% 91-70
65% 107-57
58% 93-67
51% 83-81
TTL
58% 90-64-7
57% 88-67-9
54% 83-70-7
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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