ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
43-38 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
46-38 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 3.72 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 4.01 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.72 Ldr
ERA
4.01
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
65%
CUBS
35%
CARDINALS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.9%
CHC By 1-2 runs
14.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
8.6%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Chicago
4.3
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cardinals
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cubs
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cardinals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
A
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
STL @ CHC
11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
STL @ CHC
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
STL @ CHC
0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026
CHC @ STL
4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
CHC @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691
▲
OPS
.374
167
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.7% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+31.7%
St. Louis: 69.1%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+23.3%
St. Louis: 37.8%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
6.0
3
CHC Score
4.3
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.3 / 11.2
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.8 / 2.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 6.5
13.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
21.2 / 18.7
5.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.9
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58%
93-68
53%
85-74
51%
82-79
52%
84-77
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
89-70
47%
75-85-1
53%
85-76
TTL
52%
81-74-6
46%
68-81-10
46%
72-83-6
50%
76-75-10
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