TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
48-33 | Road
8
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
42-44 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Casey Legumina
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Legumina | None-None | 3.57 | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.64 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.57
ERA
Ldr 0.64
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
60%
ASTROS
40%
RAYS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.0%
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.6
TAMPA BAY
Houston
2.3
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.3
C
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.9
C
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
HOU @ TB
4 - 14
Sep 12, 2026
HOU @ TB
2 - 3
Sep 11, 2026
HOU @ TB
1 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
TB @ HOU
0 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
TB @ HOU
8 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.728
▲
OPS
.582
169
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+40.4% more
Tampa Bay: 1.8
vs
Houston: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+35.6% more
Tampa Bay: 15.8
vs
Houston: 10.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+33.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.6
8
HOU Score
2.3
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 8.7
11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.8
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 6.9
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
10.2 / 15.8
24.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.2 / 1.0
8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TB
HOU
TB
ML
50%
81-82
58%
95-68
47%
77-87
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
97-66
55%
90-74
55%
90-73
TTL
45%
70-84-9
47%
73-81-9
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-75-10
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