BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
39-46 | Road
8
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
39-43 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Rhett Lowder | None-None | 5.07 | -- | 3.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.91 Ldr
ERA
5.07
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
60%
REDS
40%
ORIOLES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
72%
Under 0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
6.2
BALTIMORE
Cincinnati
5.2
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.4
A
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
BAL @ CIN
2 - 3
Jul 4, 2026
BAL @ CIN
8 - 5
Jul 3, 2026
BAL @ CIN
3 - 0
Apr 20, 2025
CIN @ BAL
24 - 2
Apr 19, 2025
CIN @ BAL
5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.711
▲
OPS
.699
199
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.5% more
Baltimore: 8.4
vs
Cincinnati: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.8% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+1.2%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Baltimore: 31.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
6.2
8
CIN Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 6.0
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.4
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 10.4
15.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.4 / 4.2
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BAL
CIN
BAL
ML
55%
88-71
53%
83-73
49%
79-81
57%
90-69
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
95-60-1
50%
80-80
57%
90-68-1
TTL
53%
81-73-5
54%
81-70-5
54%
83-72-5
51%
78-75-6
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