Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Nationals PIT @ WSH

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

42-42  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Jul 4 • 11:05 AM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

43-42  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Mason Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Montgomery

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley Cornelio
STARTING PITCHER

Riley Cornelio

#74 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Montgomery None-None 4.50 -- 0.1 1
Riley Cornelio None-None 7.94 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.50 Ldr ERA 7.94
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
51%
📊
NATIONALS
49%
PIRATES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 36%
Under 0 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

49.0%

Nationals Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

13.9%

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
PITTSBURGH
4.4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 PIT @ WSH 11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PIT @ WSH 7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026 PIT @ WSH 5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026 WSH @ PIT 8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026 WSH @ PIT 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.734
OPS
▲ .744
186
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +11.8% more
Pittsburgh: 3.1 vs Washington: 2.8
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.9%
Pittsburgh: 33.0% vs Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.7%
Pittsburgh: 25.3% vs Washington: 24.6%
Home Runs (L5) +95.9% more
Washington: 2.9 vs Pittsburgh: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.5 7
WSH Score 4.4 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.0 / 11.8 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.9 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.6 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 23.0 / 19.8 9.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.1 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
57% 92-69
52% 82-77
54% 87-74
52% 85-78
ATS
58% 93-68
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
50% 81-82
TTL
50% 77-78-6
47% 72-81-6
42% 65-90-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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