TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
39-45 | Road
2
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
42-43 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Rucker
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.96 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Michael Rucker | None-None | 6.48 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.96 Ldr
ERA
6.48
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
62%
MARINERS
38%
BLUE JAYS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
84%
Under 0
16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.0%
SEA By 1-2 runs
15.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
6.2
TORONTO
Seattle
4.9
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.3
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.1
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SEA @ TOR
0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026
SEA @ TOR
3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026
SEA @ TOR
1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.692
OPS
▲
.693
152
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+42.9% more
Toronto: 1.1
vs
Seattle: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+35.4% more
Toronto: 3.3
vs
Seattle: 2.1
Total Bases (L5)
+24.9% more
Toronto: 12.9
vs
Seattle: 9.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.8% more
Toronto: 9.8
vs
Seattle: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
6.2
2
SEA Score
4.9
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.2
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.8
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 12.9
5.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.3
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TOR
SEA
TOR
ML
50%
81-81
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
60%
98-64
56%
90-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
80-76-5
53%
81-71-10
45%
70-85-5
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