TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

39-45  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jul 3 • 10:10 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

42-43  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Louis Varland
STARTING PITCHER

Louis Varland

#77 | Relief Pitcher
@
Michael Rucker
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Rucker

#38 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Louis Varland None-None 0.96 -- 1.0 1
Michael Rucker None-None 6.48 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.96 Ldr ERA 6.48
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
62%
📊
MARINERS
38%
BLUE JAYS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 84%
Under 0 16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

37.3%

Mariners Cover

62.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.0%

SEA By 1-2 runs

15.5%

SEA By 3-4 runs

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.2
TORONTO
4.9
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Mariners Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.3
D
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.1
A
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 SEA @ TOR 0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026 SEA @ TOR 3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026 SEA @ TOR 1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026 TOR @ SEA 0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026 TOR @ SEA 0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.10
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.381 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.692
OPS
▲ .693
152
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +42.9% more
Toronto: 1.1 vs Seattle: 0.6
Walks (L5) +35.4% more
Toronto: 3.3 vs Seattle: 2.1
Total Bases (L5) +24.9% more
Toronto: 12.9 vs Seattle: 9.7
Strikeouts (L5) +14.8% more
Toronto: 9.8 vs Seattle: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 6.2 2
SEA Score 4.9 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.2 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.8 5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 12.9 5.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7