Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Dodgers SD @ LAD

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

43-39  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jul 3 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

54-30  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Michael King
STARTING PITCHER

Michael King

#34 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael King 5-6 3.52 1.16 6.0 5
Tanner Scott None-None 2.02 -- 1.0 3
5-6 W-L None-None
3.52 ERA Ldr 2.02
1.16 WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
36%
📊
DODGERS
64%
PADRES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 52%
Under 0 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

34.5%

Dodgers Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SD By 1-2 runs

14.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

8.9%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN DIEGO
4.6
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.925 ▲
OPS
.762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5) +27.9% more
Los Angeles: 8.6 vs San Diego: 6.7
Hits (L5) +21.4% more
Los Angeles: 12.4 vs San Diego: 10.2
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
San Diego: 0.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.0 3
LAD Score 4.6 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 12.4 / 10.2 5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 6.7 14.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 19.8 / 19.6 9.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.4 / 5.6 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
56% 92-73
51% 85-83
48% 79-87
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 91-77
43% 72-94
55% 92-75
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 82-80-6
44% 70-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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