MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
44-40 | Road
12
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
40-44 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Perkins
#50 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | 1-2 | 3.52 | 1.37 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Jack Perkins | 2-3 | 6.75 | 1.37 | 3.2 | 8 |
1-2
W-L
2-3
3.52 Ldr
ERA
6.75
1.37
WHIP
1.37
3.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
25%
ATHLETICS
75%
MARLINS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
69%
Under 0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
MIA By 1-2 runs
10.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
5.6%
ATH By 1-2 runs
18.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
19.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.8
MIAMI
Athletics
7.7
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Athletics
Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
Athletics
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
B
Sim
Athletics (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o10.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.5
A
Sim
u10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
MIA @ ATH
9 - 8
Jul 4, 2026
MIA @ ATH
7 - 2
Jul 3, 2026
MIA @ ATH
12 - 5
May 4, 2025
ATH @ MIA
3 - 2
May 3, 2025
ATH @ MIA
6 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.727
▲
OPS
.719
168
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+55.0% more
Athletics: 1.5
vs
Miami: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.4% more
Athletics: 8.3
vs
Miami: 6.1
Walks (L5)
+22.2% more
Athletics: 4.1
vs
Miami: 3.3
Home Runs (Season)
+15.5% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.8
12
ATH Score
7.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 9.8
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.0
1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.1
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 16.4
14.0 / 26.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.3
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
MIA
ATH
MIA
ML
59%
95-67
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
ATS
52%
84-78
56%
91-71
50%
81-80
54%
86-74
TTL
54%
84-73-5
56%
88-69-5
42%
66-90-5
53%
82-73-5
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