CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
43-39 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
44-40 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Kay
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Kay | 6-2 | 4.29 | 1.39 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Gavin Williams | 9-4 | 3.89 | 1.14 | 4.2 | 6 |
6-2
W-L
9-4
4.29
ERA
Ldr 3.89
1.39
WHIP
Ldr 1.14
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
52%
GUARDIANS
48%
WHITE SOX
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
31%
Under 0
69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
14.1%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.1%
CLE By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
2.9
CHICAGO
Cleveland
2.7
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.2
A
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.6
A
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 8, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 5
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Cleveland
CLE
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.826
▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+53.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 2.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+13.0%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+9.9%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Cleveland: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
2.9
3
CLE Score
2.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.8
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.0
11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 15.5
6.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.8 / 6.0
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CHW
CLE
CHW
ML
54%
87-74
49%
81-86
49%
80-82
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
99-68
59%
95-67
56%
93-74
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
96-69-2
43%
69-90-2
51%
84-81-2
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