Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Reds BAL @ CIN

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

39-46  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jul 3 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

39-43  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Yennier Cano
STARTING PITCHER

Yennier Cano

#78 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brady Singer
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Singer

#51 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yennier Cano None-None 2.57 -- 1.0 --
Brady Singer 3-6 5.03 1.51 5.0 6
None-None W-L 3-6
2.57 Ldr ERA 5.03
-- WHIP 1.51
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
52%
📊
REDS
48%
ORIOLES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 59%
Under 0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

48.0%

Reds Cover

52.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

14.1%

CIN By 1-2 runs

18.1%

CIN By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.9
BALTIMORE
5.7
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.6
B
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 BAL @ CIN 2 - 3
Jul 4, 2026 BAL @ CIN 8 - 5
Jul 3, 2026 BAL @ CIN 3 - 0
Apr 20, 2025 CIN @ BAL 24 - 2
Apr 19, 2025 CIN @ BAL 5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.711 ▲
OPS
.699
199
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +14.6% more
Baltimore: 9.0 vs Cincinnati: 7.7
Runs per Game (Season) +7.8% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season) +1.2%
Baltimore: 71.1% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.9%
Baltimore: 31.4% vs Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 5.9 3
CIN Score 5.7 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 6.9 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 9.0 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 11.6 4.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.3 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BAL
CIN
BAL
ML
55% 88-71
53% 83-73
49% 79-81
57% 90-69
ATS
54% 86-73
61% 95-60-1
50% 80-80
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 81-73-5
54% 81-70-5
54% 83-72-5
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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