PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
42-42 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
43-42 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5-5 | 5.02 | 1.32 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 3.16 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
5-5
W-L
None-None
5.02
ERA
Ldr 3.16
1.32
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
36%
NATIONALS
64%
PIRATES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Washington
5.2
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
PIT @ WSH
11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026
PIT @ WSH
7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026
PIT @ WSH
5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026
WSH @ PIT
8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026
WSH @ PIT
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.734
OPS
▲
.744
186
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+12.9% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.2% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.9%
Washington: 42.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
OPS (Season)
+1.0%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.5
5
WSH Score
5.2
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.5 / 11.2
12.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.7
5.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 10.4
7.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
19.0 / 18.7
31.0 / 22.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
57%
92-69
52%
82-77
54%
87-74
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
81-82
TTL
50%
77-78-6
47%
72-81-6
42%
65-90-6
50%
79-78-6
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