ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
43-38 | Road
17
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
46-38 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryne Stanek
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Hollowell
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Stanek | None-None | 4.96 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Gavin Hollowell | None-None | 4.05 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.96
ERA
Ldr 4.05
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
60%
CUBS
40%
CARDINALS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
39%
Under 0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
15.8%
CHC By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5.5
ST. LOUIS
Chicago
4.3
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
A
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim
u11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
STL @ CHC
11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
STL @ CHC
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
STL @ CHC
0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026
CHC @ STL
4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
CHC @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691
▲
OPS
.374
167
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.7% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+31.7%
St. Louis: 69.1%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Errors (L5)
+31.0% more
St. Louis: 0.5
vs
Chicago: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.5
17
CHC Score
4.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.9 / 8.3
7.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
4.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 6.8
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
25.8 / 13.5
12.0 / 29.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.9
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58%
93-68
53%
85-74
51%
82-79
52%
84-77
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
89-70
47%
75-85-1
53%
85-76
TTL
52%
81-74-6
46%
68-81-10
46%
72-83-6
50%
76-75-10
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