TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-64 | Road
5
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
69-93 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Cruz
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 1.89 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Steven Cruz | None-None | 5.27 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.89 Ldr
ERA
5.27
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
51%
ROYALS
49%
RAYS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
TB By 1-2 runs
18.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
13.9%
KC By 1-2 runs
18.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.8
TAMPA BAY
Kansas City
4.7
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
TB @ KC
5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026
TB @ KC
4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026
TB @ KC
10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026
KC @ TB
2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026
KC @ TB
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.718
169
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+59.2% more
Tampa Bay: 2.1
vs
Kansas City: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+40.6% more
Tampa Bay: 18.0
vs
Kansas City: 10.7
Hits (L5)
+34.5% more
Tampa Bay: 10.2
vs
Kansas City: 6.7
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8
vs
Kansas City: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.8
5
KC Score
4.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.7 / 10.2
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 7.4
3.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 18.0
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.2 / 1.0
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TB
KC
TB
ML
55%
89-72
58%
95-68
56%
90-70
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
91-70
60%
97-66
58%
93-67
55%
90-73
TTL
58%
90-64-7
47%
73-81-9
54%
83-70-7
51%
78-75-10
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