ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
77-85 | Road
11
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
94-68 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 7.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 1.64 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.00
ERA
Ldr 1.64
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
49%
BRAVES
51%
CARDINALS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
66%
Under 0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5.3
ST. LOUIS
Atlanta
5.4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Cardinals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.7
A
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
ATL @ STL
4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026
ATL @ STL
1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026
ATL @ STL
1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026
STL @ ATL
11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026
STL @ ATL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.691
OPS
▲
.757
167
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+24.9% more
Atlanta: 9.0
vs
St. Louis: 7.2
Hits (L5)
+17.9% more
Atlanta: 5.8
vs
St. Louis: 4.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.6% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
Total Bases (L5)
+8.3% more
Atlanta: 8.4
vs
St. Louis: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.3
11
ATL Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 4.9
8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.2
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.4 / 7.7
9.0 / 25.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.4
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
STL
ATL
STL
ML
46%
77-90
53%
85-74
54%
90-78
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
89-70
52%
87-81
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
83-73-11
46%
68-81-10
49%
76-80-11
50%
76-75-10
Contextual Game News
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