Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Rockies MIA @ COL

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

80-82  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Jul 2 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

58-104  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Victor Vodnik
STARTING PITCHER

Victor Vodnik

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Zach Agnos
STARTING PITCHER

Zach Agnos

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Victor Vodnik None-None 6.31 -- 1.1 --
Zach Agnos None-None 7.09 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
6.31 Ldr ERA 7.09
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
45%
📊
ROCKIES
55%
MARLINS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 41%
Under 0 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Colorado)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

44.0%

Rockies Cover

56.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

MIA By 1-2 runs

17.2%

MIA By 3-4 runs

11.8%

COL By 1-2 runs

19.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
MIAMI
5.8
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockies Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u12.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim u12.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 MIA @ COL 4 - 14
Jul 1, 2026 MIA @ COL 3 - 6
Jun 30, 2026 MIA @ COL 14 - 3
Jun 29, 2026 MIA @ COL 10 - 7
Mar 29, 2026 COL @ MIA 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.727
OPS
▲ .739
168
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +26.8% more
Colorado: 1.8 vs Miami: 1.4
Errors (L5) +24.0% more
Colorado: 0.6 vs Miami: 0.4
Home Runs (Season) +7.1% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season) +5.2% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 5.2 4
COL Score 5.8 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 11.2 14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 7.2 3.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 16.4 / 19.6 23.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.1 / 2.5 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
MIA
COL
MIA
ML
60% 97-64
48% 78-84
55% 88-73
55% 88-72
ATS
60% 97-64
56% 91-71
52% 83-78
54% 86-74
TTL
60% 93-62-6
56% 88-69-5
50% 77-78-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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