PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
82-80 | Road
6
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
88-74 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alan Rangel
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | 1-1 | 5.28 | 1.52 | 4.0 | 6 |
| Alan Rangel | 0-0 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 8.0 | 9 |
1-1
W-L
0-0
5.28
ERA
Ldr 2.25
1.52
WHIP
Ldr 1.00
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 8.0
6
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
34%
PHILLIES
66%
PIRATES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
39%
Under 0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.6
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
5.6
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies
Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
B
Sim
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
11 - 7
May 17, 2026
PHI @ PIT
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.734
▲
OPS
.724
186
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+41.8% more
Philadelphia: 2.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.8% more
Philadelphia: 12.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.6
Total Bases (L5)
+12.3% more
Philadelphia: 18.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 16.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.6
6
PHI Score
5.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.4 / 9.9
4.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
12.1 / 10.6
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
18.1 / 16.1
6.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.8
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
59%
97-67
52%
82-77
49%
80-84
52%
85-78
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
86-73
51%
83-81
50%
81-82
TTL
57%
88-67-9
47%
72-81-6
51%
78-76-9
50%
79-78-6
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