Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

65-97  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Jul 1 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

86-76  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Smith

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brandyn Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Brandyn Garcia

#55 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Smith None-None 1.86 -- 1.0 1
Brandyn Garcia None-None 2.33 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.86 Ldr ERA 2.33
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
36%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
64%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Arizona)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

36.3%

Diamondbacks Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-2 runs

15.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

9.5%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
SAN FRANCISCO
6.5
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Diamondbacks Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.6
A
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +20.0% more
Arizona: 1.6 vs San Francisco: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +15.9% more
Arizona: 14.5 vs San Francisco: 12.5
Hits (L5) +15.7% more
Arizona: 7.8 vs San Francisco: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season) +10.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.1 6
ARI Score 6.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.8 / 6.7 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 4.0 / 4.9 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 12.5 8.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.1 / 4.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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