MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
77-85 | Road
8
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
81-81 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tatsuya Imai
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | 6-3 | 3.86 | 1.32 | 5.0 | 11 |
| Tatsuya Imai | 5-3 | 6.14 | 1.32 | 1.1 | 2 |
6-3
W-L
5-3
3.86 Ldr
ERA
6.14
1.32
WHIP
1.32
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
11 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
59%
ASTROS
41%
TWINS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
16.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.9
MINNESOTA
Houston
2.8
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.1
A
Sim
Twins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.7
A
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
MIN @ HOU
8 - 3
Jun 30, 2026
MIN @ HOU
4 - 6
Jun 29, 2026
MIN @ HOU
5 - 4
May 20, 2026
HOU @ MIN
1 - 4
May 19, 2026
HOU @ MIN
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
187
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.9% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.2% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.8%
Minnesota: 72.0%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+8.8%
Minnesota: 31.7%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.9
8
HOU Score
2.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.7 / 8.0
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.2
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.0
12.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 13.2
9.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.0
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIN
HOU
MIN
ML
50%
81-82
52%
84-78
47%
77-87
50%
80-81
ATS
56%
91-72
59%
95-67
55%
90-74
59%
95-66
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-75-9
45%
69-86-9
53%
80-72-9
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…