Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Royals TB @ KC

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

98-64  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Jul 1 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

69-93  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Kelly

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Strahm

#25 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Kelly None-None 2.52 -- 1.1 --
Matt Strahm None-None 5.53 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.52 Ldr ERA 5.53
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
51%
📊
ROYALS
49%
RAYS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

49.0%

Royals Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

TB By 1-2 runs

18.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

13.9%

KC By 1-2 runs

18.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
TAMPA BAY
4.4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 TB @ KC 5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026 TB @ KC 4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026 TB @ KC 10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026 KC @ TB 2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026 KC @ TB 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728 ▲
OPS
.718
169
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +40.3% more
Tampa Bay: 2.2 vs Kansas City: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5) +30.9% more
Tampa Bay: 7.7 vs Kansas City: 5.3
Hits (L5) +28.3% more
Tampa Bay: 9.8 vs Kansas City: 7.0
Total Bases (L5) +25.5% more
Tampa Bay: 17.4 vs Kansas City: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 4.5 4
KC Score 4.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.0 / 9.8 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 2.2 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.3 / 7.7 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 17.4 6.0 / 19.0
Walks 6.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TB
KC
TB
ML
55% 89-72
58% 95-68
56% 90-70
58% 95-68
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-66
58% 93-67
55% 90-73
TTL
58% 90-64-7
47% 73-81-9
54% 83-70-7
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 11 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 8 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 7 hours, 22 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 6 minutes ago
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
bleacherreport 19 hours, 19 minutes ago