Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Braves STL @ ATL

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

77-85  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Jul 1 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

94-68  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gordon Graceffo None-None 3.43 -- 0.2 1
Raisel Iglesias None-None 1.27 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.43 ERA Ldr 1.27
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
51%
📊
BRAVES
49%
CARDINALS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

48.0%

Braves Cover

52.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

STL By 1-2 runs

18.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

14.1%

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

ATL By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.4
ST. LOUIS
5.2
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.6
B
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 ATL @ STL 4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026 STL @ ATL 11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026 STL @ ATL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.691
OPS
▲ .757
167 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +82.7% more
St. Louis: 1.0 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +25.2% more
St. Louis: 10.1 vs Atlanta: 7.5
Walks (L5) +21.1% more
St. Louis: 4.6 vs Atlanta: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 5.4 1
ATL Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.7 / 6.4 6.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.3 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 7.5 / 10.1 10.0 / 3.0
Walks 3.6 / 4.6 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
STL
ATL
STL
ML
46% 77-90
53% 85-74
54% 90-78
52% 84-77
ATS
57% 96-71
56% 89-70
52% 87-81
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 83-73-11
46% 68-81-10
49% 76-80-11
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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