PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
82-80 | Road
6
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
88-74 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 6-7 | 3.62 | 0.93 | 4.0 | 5 |
| Zack Wheeler | 7-1 | 2.36 | 0.88 | 4.2 | 10 |
6-7
W-L
7-1
3.62
ERA
Ldr 2.36
0.93
WHIP
Ldr 0.88
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
35%
PHILLIES
65%
PIRATES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
11 - 7
May 17, 2026
PHI @ PIT
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.734
▲
OPS
.724
186
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+34.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+28.9% more
Philadelphia: 4.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.2% more
Philadelphia: 11.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.4
Hits (L5)
+14.4% more
Philadelphia: 10.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.5
6
PHI Score
5.2
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.0 / 8.8
11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.8
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.6 / 9.4
13.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 16.2
21.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.2
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
59%
97-67
52%
82-77
49%
80-84
52%
85-78
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
86-73
51%
83-81
50%
81-82
TTL
57%
88-67-9
47%
72-81-6
51%
78-76-9
50%
79-78-6
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