NEW YORK
METSNYM
74-88 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
79-83 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cionel Perez
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Spencer Miles
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cionel Perez | None-None | 5.73 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Spencer Miles | None-None | 2.83 | -- | 3.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.73
ERA
Ldr 2.83
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
METS
39%
BLUE JAYS
61%
METS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
74%
Under 0
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
NYM By 1-2 runs
15.8%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.0%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.1
NEW YORK
Toronto
6.3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
A
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.4
A
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
NYM @ TOR
3 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
NYM @ TOR
3 - 0
Jun 29, 2026
NYM @ TOR
1 - 2
Apr 6, 2025
TOR @ NYM
1 - 2
Apr 5, 2025
TOR @ NYM
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.705
▲
OPS
.692
204
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+51.9% more
Toronto: 3.9
vs
New York: 2.6
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Toronto: 0.8
vs
New York: 0.7
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.8%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
New York: 23.9%
Home Runs (L5)
+54.3% more
New York: 1.3
vs
Toronto: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.1
3
TOR Score
6.3
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.3 / 6.9
12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.3
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 9.1
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
9.4 / 12.3
20.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.6
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYM
TOR
NYM
ML
46%
74-87
50%
79-80
50%
80-80
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-66
49%
79-81
49%
78-81
TTL
51%
80-76-5
55%
80-66-13
45%
70-85-5
51%
74-72-13
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