SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
91-71 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
89-73 | Home
23
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trent Thornton
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 4-3 | 4.61 | 1.32 | 4.0 | 6 |
| Trent Thornton | None-None | 2.52 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
4-3
W-L
None-None
4.61
ERA
Ldr 2.52
1.32
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
50%
CUBS
50%
PADRES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
15%
Under 0
85%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
13.3%
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.6
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
3.7
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
u11.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.3
A
Sim
u11.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHC @ SD
1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026
CHC @ SD
0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026
SD @ CHC
3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026
SD @ CHC
7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026
SD @ CHC
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Chicago
CHC
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.925
▲
OPS
.374
4
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+25.4% more
Chicago: 2.2
vs
San Diego: 1.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+91.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+55.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+41.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.6
3
CHC Score
3.7
23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 10.0
17.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.8
8.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 7.1
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 16.8
43.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.6
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SD
CHC
SD
ML
58%
93-68
51%
85-83
51%
82-79
51%
85-82
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
91-77
47%
75-85-1
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
81-74-6
51%
82-80-6
46%
72-83-6
54%
86-74-6
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