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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

77-85  |  Road

10
FINAL
Wed, Jul 1 • 1:35 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

87-75  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Carson Palmquist
STARTING PITCHER

Carson Palmquist

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Payton Tolle
STARTING PITCHER

Payton Tolle

#70 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carson Palmquist None-None 2.08 -- 1.0 1
Payton Tolle 3-5 3.39 1.09 3.0 5
None-None W-L 3-5
2.08 Ldr ERA 3.39
-- WHIP 1.09
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
44%
📊
RED SOX
56%
NATIONALS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Boston)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

44.0%

Red Sox Cover

56.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.2%

WSH By 3-4 runs

11.8%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
WASHINGTON
4.8
BOSTON
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 WSH @ BOS 10 - 2
Jun 30, 2026 WSH @ BOS 8 - 1
Jun 29, 2026 WSH @ BOS 3 - 6
Jul 6, 2025 BOS @ WSH 6 - 4
Jul 5, 2025 BOS @ WSH 10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.744 ▲
OPS
.409
210 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +56.8% more
Boston: 3.1 vs Washington: 2.0
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +80.3% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +33.5%
Washington: 74.4% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.2 10
BOS Score 4.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 9.3 9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 9.2 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 15.1 11.0 / 27.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.0 10.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
WSH
BOS
WSH
ML
50% 80-80
57% 92-69
47% 76-87
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-67
58% 93-68
48% 79-84
57% 91-70
TTL
46% 72-83-5
50% 77-78-6
47% 74-83-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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