TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
80-82 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
85-77 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Winn | None-None | 7.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Joey Cantillo | 6-3 | 3.86 | 1.40 | 5.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
6-3
7.00
ERA
Ldr 3.86
--
WHIP
1.40
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
67%
GUARDIANS
33%
RANGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
18.3%
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.4
TEXAS
Cleveland
2.5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rangers
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Guardians
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026
TEX @ CLE
6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026
CLE @ TEX
0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026
CLE @ TEX
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.713
▲
OPS
.696
183
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.6% more
Texas: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+23.2% more
Texas: 13.9
vs
Cleveland: 10.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.5% more
Texas: 9.3
vs
Cleveland: 8.0
Home Runs (Season)
+11.5% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.4
4
CLE Score
2.5
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.5
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.3
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 9.3
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 13.9
21.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.9 / 1.0
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TEX
CLE
TEX
ML
54%
87-74
53%
86-76
49%
80-82
57%
91-70
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
92-70
59%
95-67
61%
98-63
TTL
55%
88-71-2
53%
78-70-14
43%
69-90-2
55%
81-66-14
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