Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

65-97  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jun 30 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

86-76  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Houser
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Houser

#12 | SP
@
Juan Morillo
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Morillo

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Houser None-None 5.38 -- 5.1 1
Juan Morillo None-None 2.78 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.38 ERA Ldr 2.78
-- WHIP --
5.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
57%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
43%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 59%
Under 0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

43.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.4%

SF By 3-4 runs

15.5%

ARI By 1-2 runs

17.0%

ARI By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.3
SAN FRANCISCO
4.6
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Diamondbacks Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
A
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +37.7% more
San Francisco: 3.5 vs Arizona: 2.2
Errors (L5) +35.0% more
San Francisco: 0.7 vs Arizona: 0.4
Hits (L5) +17.4% more
San Francisco: 8.1 vs Arizona: 6.7
Home Runs (Season) +6.7% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.3 2
ARI Score 4.6 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 8.1 10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 4.4 / 4.8 3.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 12.7 18.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.5 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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