MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
80-82 | Road
14
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
58-104 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Gordon
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | 3-6 | 4.21 | 1.22 | 5.1 | 8 |
| Tanner Gordon | None-None | 6.69 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
3-6
W-L
None-None
4.21 Ldr
ERA
6.69
1.22
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
33%
ROCKIES
67%
MARLINS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
8.1%
COL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
COL By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.4
MIAMI
Colorado
6.3
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rockies
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.7
D
Sim
u11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
MIA @ COL
4 - 14
Jul 1, 2026
MIA @ COL
3 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
MIA @ COL
14 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
MIA @ COL
10 - 7
Mar 29, 2026
COL @ MIA
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.727
OPS
▲
.739
168
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+35.0% more
Colorado: 1.3
vs
Miami: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Colorado: 0.4
vs
Miami: 0.1
Home Runs (Season)
+7.1% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.2% more
Colorado: 4.6
vs
Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.4
14
COL Score
6.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 9.5
5.0 / 21.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.0
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
4.4 / 5.6
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 16.3
11.0 / 36.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.6
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
MIA
COL
MIA
ML
60%
97-64
48%
78-84
55%
88-73
55%
88-72
ATS
60%
97-64
56%
91-71
52%
83-78
54%
86-74
TTL
60%
93-62-6
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
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