SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
91-71 | Road
7
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
89-73 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Rolison
#33 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 1.62 | -- | 1.2 | -- |
| Ryan Rolison | None-None | 1.97 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.62 Ldr
ERA
1.97
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
45%
CUBS
55%
PADRES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
19%
Under 0
81%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
SD By 1-2 runs
17.0%
SD By 3-4 runs
11.5%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.2
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
3.9
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
u11.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.1
A
Sim
u11.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHC @ SD
1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026
CHC @ SD
0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026
SD @ CHC
3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026
SD @ CHC
7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026
SD @ CHC
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Chicago
CHC
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.925
▲
OPS
.374
4
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+16.0% more
Chicago: 0.8
vs
San Diego: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Chicago: 0.4
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+91.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+55.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.2
7
CHC Score
3.9
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 8.5
13.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.7
5.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.2
4.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 12.2
28.0 / 26.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.9
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SD
CHC
SD
ML
58%
93-68
51%
85-83
51%
82-79
51%
85-82
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
91-77
47%
75-85-1
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
81-74-6
51%
82-80-6
46%
72-83-6
54%
86-74-6
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