TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-64 | Road
10
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
69-93 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Noah Cameron
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 3-5 | 3.45 | 1.31 | 6.0 | 5 |
| Noah Cameron | 4-5 | 4.95 | 1.33 | 3.2 | -- |
3-5
W-L
4-5
3.45 Ldr
ERA
4.95
1.31 Ldr
WHIP
1.33
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.2
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
46%
ROYALS
54%
RAYS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
43%
Under 0
57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.1%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.1%
KC By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.1
TAMPA BAY
Kansas City
4.6
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
TB @ KC
5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026
TB @ KC
4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026
TB @ KC
10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026
KC @ TB
2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026
KC @ TB
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.718
169
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+276.9% more
Kansas City: 3.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+48.0% more
Kansas City: 0.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+80.4% more
Tampa Bay: 2.2
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+37.8% more
Tampa Bay: 17.7
vs
Kansas City: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.1
10
KC Score
4.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.2
6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 2.2
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 8.0
2.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 17.7
17.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.9 / 1.0
11.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TB
KC
TB
ML
55%
89-72
58%
95-68
56%
90-70
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
91-70
60%
97-66
58%
93-67
55%
90-73
TTL
58%
90-64-7
47%
73-81-9
54%
83-70-7
51%
78-75-10
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