Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Braves STL @ ATL

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

77-85  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Jun 30 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

94-68  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Dylan Dodd
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Dodd

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 3.82 -- 1.0 --
Dylan Dodd None-None 2.57 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.82 ERA Ldr 2.57
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
42%
📊
BRAVES
58%
CARDINALS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 61%
Under 0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Atlanta)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

42.1%

Braves Cover

57.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.8%

STL By 3-4 runs

11.2%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.4%

ATL By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
ST. LOUIS
5.4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Braves Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Braves (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 ATL @ STL 4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026 STL @ ATL 11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026 STL @ ATL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.691
OPS
▲ .757
167 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +72.0% more
Atlanta: 0.9 vs St. Louis: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +39.0% more
Atlanta: 9.0 vs St. Louis: 6.4
Runs per Game (Season) +12.6% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season) +6.6%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.6 5
ATL Score 5.4 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.5 / 6.6 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 6.4 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 7.8 / 9.1 7.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.3 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
STL
ATL
STL
ML
46% 77-90
53% 85-74
54% 90-78
52% 84-77
ATS
57% 96-71
56% 89-70
52% 87-81
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 83-73-11
46% 68-81-10
49% 76-80-11
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 1 hour, 20 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 27 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 13 hours, 34 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 19 hours, 38 minutes ago
Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
yahoo 1 day, 19 hours ago