WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
77-85 | Road
8
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
87-75 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | 4-4 | 3.69 | 1.43 | 7.0 | 13 |
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 6.16 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
4-4
W-L
None-None
3.69 Ldr
ERA
6.16
1.43
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
13 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
48%
RED SOX
52%
NATIONALS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
WSH By 1-2 runs
18.1%
WSH By 3-4 runs
13.0%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.3
WASHINGTON
Boston
4.5
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
WSH @ BOS
10 - 2
Jun 30, 2026
WSH @ BOS
8 - 1
Jun 29, 2026
WSH @ BOS
3 - 6
Jul 6, 2025
BOS @ WSH
6 - 4
Jul 5, 2025
BOS @ WSH
10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.744
▲
OPS
.409
210
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+41.1% more
Boston: 10.2
vs
Washington: 7.2
Errors (L5)
+19.0% more
Boston: 0.6
vs
Washington: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+99.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+80.3% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.3
8
BOS Score
4.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.9
4.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 7.2
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 13.6
5.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.0
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
WSH
BOS
WSH
ML
50%
80-80
57%
92-69
47%
76-87
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
93-67
58%
93-68
48%
79-84
57%
91-70
TTL
46%
72-83-5
50%
77-78-6
47%
74-83-6
42%
65-90-6
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