Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Blue Jays NYM @ TOR

NEW YORK

METSNYM

74-88  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Jun 30 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

79-83  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Devin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Devin Williams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Fluharty
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Fluharty

#68 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Devin Williams None-None 4.13 -- 1.0 --
Mason Fluharty None-None 4.59 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.13 Ldr ERA 4.59
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
37%
📊
BLUE JAYS
63%
METS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Toronto)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

35.4%

Blue Jays Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.0%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.2%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
6.5
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Blue Jays Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Blue Jays Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Blue Jays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.5
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 NYM @ TOR 3 - 9
Jun 30, 2026 NYM @ TOR 3 - 0
Jun 29, 2026 NYM @ TOR 1 - 2
Apr 6, 2025 TOR @ NYM 1 - 2
Apr 5, 2025 TOR @ NYM 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.705 ▲
OPS
.692
204 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +53.5% more
Toronto: 4.4 vs New York: 2.9
Batting Avg (Season) +0.8%
Toronto: 24.7% vs New York: 23.9%
Errors (L5) +27.0% more
New York: 1.0 vs Toronto: 0.7
Home Runs (Season) +25.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.0 3
TOR Score 6.5 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 6.9 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 9.2 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 11.4 7.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.9 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYM
TOR
NYM
ML
46% 74-87
50% 79-80
50% 80-80
48% 76-83
ATS
56% 90-71
58% 93-66
49% 79-81
49% 78-81
TTL
51% 80-76-5
55% 80-66-13
45% 70-85-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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