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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

80-82  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jun 30 • 6:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-77  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Latz
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Latz

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tanner Bibee
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Bibee

#28 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Latz None-None 1.71 -- 1.0 2
Tanner Bibee 2-8 3.69 1.14 7.0 2
None-None W-L 2-8
1.71 Ldr ERA 3.69
-- WHIP 1.14
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
70%
📊
GUARDIANS
30%
RANGERS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Texas)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

72.6%

Guardians Cover

27.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.0%

CLE By 1-2 runs

12.4%

CLE By 3-4 runs

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
TEXAS
2.4
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Guardians Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
C
Sim Guardians (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026 TEX @ CLE 6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026 CLE @ TEX 0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026 CLE @ TEX 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.713 ▲
OPS
.696
183 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +43.0% more
Texas: 0.9 vs Cleveland: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +22.5% more
Texas: 14.9 vs Cleveland: 11.6
Home Runs (Season) +11.5% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Hits (L5) +9.2% more
Texas: 9.7 vs Cleveland: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.8 4
CLE Score 2.4 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 9.7 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 8.0 5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 14.9 9.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.8 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TEX
CLE
TEX
ML
54% 87-74
53% 86-76
49% 80-82
57% 91-70
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 92-70
59% 95-67
61% 98-63
TTL
55% 88-71-2
53% 78-70-14
43% 69-90-2
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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