PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
82-80 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
88-74 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | 3-7 | 4.62 | 1.39 | 6.1 | 6 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 9-3 | 2.00 | 1.11 | 7.0 | 9 |
3-7
W-L
9-3
4.62
ERA
Ldr 2.00
1.39
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
6.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
6
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
34%
PHILLIES
66%
PIRATES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.1%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.4%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.3
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
5.1
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
11 - 7
May 17, 2026
PHI @ PIT
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.734
▲
OPS
.724
186
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+51.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+41.7% more
Philadelphia: 4.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.3
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.4% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.3
0
PHI Score
5.1
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 10.7
12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 2.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.9 / 10.1
13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 21.3
17.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
59%
97-67
52%
82-77
49%
80-84
52%
85-78
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
86-73
51%
83-81
50%
81-82
TTL
57%
88-67-9
47%
72-81-6
51%
78-76-9
50%
79-78-6
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