Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

35-48  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Jun 29 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

41-42  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
@
Eduardo Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Eduardo Rodriguez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
JT Brubaker None-None 2.74 -- 3.1 --
Eduardo Rodriguez 6-2 2.21 1.21 7.0 1
None-None W-L 6-2
2.74 ERA Ldr 2.21
-- WHIP 1.21
3.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
50%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
50%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Arizona)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

49.0%

Diamondbacks Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-2 runs

18.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

13.3%

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
SAN FRANCISCO
4.7
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Giants (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +23.6% more
Arizona: 2.8 vs San Francisco: 2.3
Runs per Game (Season) +10.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Home Runs (L5) +9.0% more
Arizona: 1.0 vs San Francisco: 0.9
OPS (Season) +1.4%
Arizona: 72.0% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.6 4
ARI Score 4.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.7 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.2 / 5.7 3.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 12.1 14.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.3 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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