MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
44-40 | Road
10
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
33-51 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Sullivan
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 8-4 | 4.20 | 1.24 | 5.2 | 3 |
| Sean Sullivan | 0-2 | 8.25 | 1.92 | 12.0 | 7 |
8-4
W-L
0-2
4.20 Ldr
ERA
8.25
1.24 Ldr
WHIP
1.92
5.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 12.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
24%
ROCKIES
76%
MARLINS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
51%
Under 0
49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
MIA By 1-2 runs
10.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
5.2%
COL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.5
MIAMI
Colorado
7.6
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rockies
Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rockies
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.1
A
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o11.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.1
D
Sim
u11.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
MIA @ COL
4 - 14
Jul 1, 2026
MIA @ COL
3 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
MIA @ COL
14 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
MIA @ COL
10 - 7
Mar 29, 2026
COL @ MIA
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.727
OPS
▲
.739
168
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+103.0% more
Colorado: 1.5
vs
Miami: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+44.5% more
Colorado: 16.6
vs
Miami: 11.5
Errors (L5)
+43.0% more
Colorado: 0.5
vs
Miami: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+26.8% more
Colorado: 9.8
vs
Miami: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.5
10
COL Score
7.6
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 7.7
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
3.6 / 6.0
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 11.5
18.0 / 26.0
Walks
1.5 / 1.4
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
MIA
COL
MIA
ML
60%
97-64
48%
78-84
55%
88-73
55%
88-72
ATS
60%
97-64
56%
91-71
52%
83-78
54%
86-74
TTL
60%
93-62-6
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
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