MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
40-45 | Road
5
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
42-44 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Peter Lambert
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | 3-5 | 4.15 | 1.20 | 7.0 | 7 |
| Peter Lambert | 6-4 | 3.51 | 1.17 | 5.2 | 4 |
3-5
W-L
6-4
4.15
ERA
Ldr 3.51
1.20
WHIP
Ldr 1.17
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.2
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
55%
ASTROS
45%
TWINS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
36%
Under 0
64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIN By 3-4 runs
15.0%
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.9
MINNESOTA
Houston
3.4
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
A
Sim
Twins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.3
B
Sim
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
MIN @ HOU
8 - 3
Jun 30, 2026
MIN @ HOU
4 - 6
Jun 29, 2026
MIN @ HOU
5 - 4
May 20, 2026
HOU @ MIN
1 - 4
May 19, 2026
HOU @ MIN
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
187
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.9% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.2% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Houston: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.7% more
Minnesota: 9.4
vs
Houston: 7.8
OPS (Season)
+13.8%
Minnesota: 72.0%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.9
5
HOU Score
3.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 9.5
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.3
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 9.4
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 15.8
15.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.9
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIN
HOU
MIN
ML
50%
81-82
52%
84-78
47%
77-87
50%
80-81
ATS
56%
91-72
59%
95-67
55%
90-74
59%
95-66
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-75-9
45%
69-86-9
53%
80-72-9
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