Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Cubs SD @ CHC

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

43-39  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Jun 29 • 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

46-38  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Trent Thornton
STARTING PITCHER

Trent Thornton

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Miller None-None 0.78 -- 0.2 --
Trent Thornton None-None 2.63 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.78 Ldr ERA 2.63
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
40%
📊
CUBS
60%
PADRES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 19%
Under 0 81%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

40.1%

Cubs Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.1
SAN DIEGO
4.1
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Win
83% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
A
Sim u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 CHC @ SD 1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026 CHC @ SD 0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026 SD @ CHC 3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026 SD @ CHC 7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026 SD @ CHC 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Chicago CHC
2
Games Played
2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.925 ▲
OPS
.374
4 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +24.0% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs San Diego: 1.0
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Chicago: 0.6 vs San Diego: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +10.9% more
Chicago: 8.7 vs San Diego: 7.8
Runs per Game (Season) +91.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.1 2
CHC Score 4.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 7.3 10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 7.8 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 11.8 12.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.8 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SD
CHC
SD
ML
58% 93-68
51% 85-83
51% 82-79
51% 85-82
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 91-77
47% 75-85-1
55% 92-75
TTL
52% 81-74-6
51% 82-80-6
46% 72-83-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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