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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

43-42  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Jun 29 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

36-46  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Miles Mikolas
STARTING PITCHER

Miles Mikolas

#36 | SP
@
Ranger Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Ranger Suarez

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Miles Mikolas 2-6 5.44 1.29 7.0 3
Ranger Suarez 3-3 2.94 1.14 6.0 8
2-6 W-L 3-3
5.44 ERA Ldr 2.94
1.29 WHIP Ldr 1.14
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
48%
📊
RED SOX
52%
NATIONALS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Boston)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

48.0%

Red Sox Cover

52.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.1%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.0%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
WASHINGTON
4.4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 WSH @ BOS 10 - 2
Jun 30, 2026 WSH @ BOS 8 - 1
Jun 29, 2026 WSH @ BOS 3 - 6
Jul 6, 2025 BOS @ WSH 6 - 4
Jul 5, 2025 BOS @ WSH 10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.744 ▲
OPS
.409
210 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Boston: 0.9 vs Washington: 0.6
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +80.3% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5) +43.0% more
Washington: 4.0 vs Boston: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.2 3
BOS Score 4.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.3 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.8 12.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 14.9 16.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.3 / 4.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
WSH
BOS
WSH
ML
50% 80-80
57% 92-69
47% 76-87
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-67
58% 93-68
48% 79-84
57% 91-70
TTL
46% 72-83-5
50% 77-78-6
47% 74-83-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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