NEW YORK
METSNYM
35-49 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
39-45 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trey Yesavage
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 4.71 | -- | 5.2 | 4 |
| Trey Yesavage | 3-3 | 3.34 | 1.17 | 6.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
3-3
4.71
ERA
Ldr 3.34
--
WHIP
1.17
5.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
METS
30%
BLUE JAYS
70%
METS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
77%
Under 0
23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.8
NEW YORK
Toronto
7
TORONTO
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
C
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.8
A
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
NYM @ TOR
3 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
NYM @ TOR
3 - 0
Jun 29, 2026
NYM @ TOR
1 - 2
Apr 6, 2025
TOR @ NYM
1 - 2
Apr 5, 2025
TOR @ NYM
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.705
▲
OPS
.692
204
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+142.6% more
Toronto: 5.6
vs
New York: 2.3
Home Runs (L5)
+44.0% more
Toronto: 1.3
vs
New York: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Toronto: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.5
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.8%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
New York: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.8
1
TOR Score
7.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.9
4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 9.8
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 12.1
7.0 / 10.0
Walks
5.6 / 2.3
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYM
TOR
NYM
ML
46%
74-87
50%
79-80
50%
80-80
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-66
49%
79-81
49%
78-81
TTL
51%
80-76-5
55%
80-66-13
45%
70-85-5
51%
74-72-13
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …