TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
42-42 | Road
6
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
44-40 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 1.76 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Parker Messick | 7-4 | 2.85 | 1.05 | 6.2 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
7-4
1.76 Ldr
ERA
2.85
--
WHIP
1.05
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
68%
GUARDIANS
32%
RANGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
18.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.5
TEXAS
Cleveland
2.5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rangers
Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Guardians
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026
TEX @ CLE
6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026
CLE @ TEX
0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026
CLE @ TEX
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.713
▲
OPS
.696
183
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+87.1% more
Texas: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+28.1% more
Texas: 14.4
vs
Cleveland: 10.3
Home Runs (Season)
+11.5% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Hits (L5)
+9.5% more
Texas: 9.1
vs
Cleveland: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.5
6
CLE Score
2.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.1
10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 9.5
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 14.4
14.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.7 / 1.7
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TEX
CLE
TEX
ML
54%
87-74
53%
86-76
49%
80-82
57%
91-70
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
92-70
59%
95-67
61%
98-63
TTL
55%
88-71-2
53%
78-70-14
43%
69-90-2
55%
81-66-14
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